Survivor Bias
Air planes played one of the central roles in World War II. They immediately surpassed the expectations of just strapping a machine gun onto a single engine plane and calling it a fighter plane that had been the standard in World War I. They became crucial strategic players and bombers were soon among the most important air craft. However, because they were bigger, slower, and harder to maneuver they were also easy targets. The UK alone lost nearly 12,000 bombers. Because these air crafts were so important to missions and the success of the war, a group called the Center for Naval Analyses started to study the planes that survived missions and noted where there were bullet holes. They concluded that they needed to add more armor and protection to those areas hoping that it would help them lose fewer planes.
Then a statistician named Abraham Wald got involved who came to the exact opposite conclusion. He threw out this term called survivorship bias and, at least in my mind, called them all idiots under his breath. You see, they were only studying the planes that had survived. So while all the planes they studied had multiple bullet holes in the wings and some other areas they were still able to make it home. However, bullet holes in the cockpit, engines, and fuel tanks were basically nonexistent in their research because those were the shots that destroyed the most planes. Wald suggested reinforcing those areas instead.
Survivor bias isn’t anything new. In fact, it’s been around since at least 323 BC with Diogenes. It is still a trap that we fall into all the time, especially in the church. Typically we like to do the same things we’ve done before because they are familiar, we know they work, and probably because it’s a good thing to begin with. We see all of our friends enjoying it, we enjoy it, so it must be a good thing, and so we do more of those types of things. In a sense, and I wish this was a different term, we cater to the survivors or the ones who are already home. We don’t always pay attention to the ones who are lost.
I believe it was my Intro to Ministry professor who gave me this poem, he also said that if he ever caught us with a copy in our Bible, he’d fail us… Or maybe it was flail us, I wasn’t paying attention. But even 13 years later I still have a copy of Sam Shoemaker’s poem “I Stand By The Door” in my Bible. I’d like to share it with you now, and even though it’s a bit longer than my usual blog post, encourage you to read it. After all, you’ve made it this far, and this poem has withstood the test of time whereas my words will fade away.
“I neither go to far in, nor stay to far out.
The door is the most important door in the world -
It is the door through which men walk when they find God.
There is no use my going way inside and staying there,
When so many are still outside and they, as much as I,
Crave to know where the door is.
And all that so many ever find
Is only the wall where the door ought to be.
They creep along the wall like blind men,
With outstretched, groping hands,
Feeling for a door, knowing there must be a door,
Yet they never find it.
So I stand by the door.
The most tremendous thing in the world
Is for men to find that door - the door to God.
The most important thing that any man can do
Is to take hold of one of those blind, groping hands
And put it on the latch - the latch that only clicks
And opens to the man’s own touch.
Men die outside the door, as starving beggars die
On cold nights in cruel cities in the dead of winter.
Die for want of what is within their grasp.
They live on the other side of it - live because they have not found it.
Nothing else matters compared to helping them find it,
And open it, and walk in, and find Him.
So I stand by the door.
Go in great saints; go all the way in -
Go way down into the cavernous cellars,
And way up into the spacious attics.
It is a vast, roomy house, this house where God is.
Go into the deepest of hidden casements,
Of withdrawal, of silence, of sainthood.
Some must inhabit those inner rooms
And know the depths and heights of God,
And call outside to the rest of us how wonderful it is.
Sometimes I take a deeper look in.
Sometimes venture in a little farther,
But my place seems closer to the opening.
So I stand by the door.
There is another reason why I stand there.
Some people get part way in and become afraid
Lest God and the zeal of His house devour them;
For God is so very great and asks all of us.
And these people feel a cosmic claustrophobia
And want to get out. ‘Let me out!’ they cry.
And the people way inside only terrify them more.
Somebody must be by the door to tell them that they are spoiled.
For the old life, they have seen too much:
One taste of God and nothing but God will do any more.
Somebody must be watching for the frightened
Who seek to sneak out just where they came in,
To tell them how much better it is inside.
The people too far in do not see how near these are
To leaving - preoccupied with the wonder of it all.
Somebody must watch for those who have entered the door
But would like to run away. So for them too,
I stand by the door.
I admire the people who go way in.
But I wish they would not forget how it was
Before they got in. Then they would be able to help
The people who have not yet even found the door.
Or the people who want to run away again from God.
You can go in too deeply and stay in too long
And forget the people outside the door.
As for me, I shall take my old accustomed place,
Near enough to God to hear Him and know He is there,
But not so far from men as not to hear them,
And remember they are there too.
Where? Outside the door -
Thousands of them. Millions of them.
But - more important for me -
One of them, two of them, ten of them.
Whose hands I am intended to put on the latch.
So I shall stand by the door and wait
For those who seek it.
’I had rather be a door-keeper
So I stand by the door.”
Nathan Persell serves as our Youth Director. When he's not leading devotions and playing basketball with teenagers, he enjoys disc golf and bike riding. Learn more about Nathan here.
Do You Hear What I Hear?
It is by far one of the worst three hours of my life every year. It’s not going to the dentist, a colonoscopy, or even spending time with the in-laws (who happen to be wonderful people). It’s watching MTV’s Video Music Awards (VMA). I know what you’re thinking, "why would I willingly subject myself to three hours of torture instead of watching literally anything else (or nothing at all)"? Because it’s important to me to know what our teenagers are watching and listening to. And even though it’s not really your job to know, you should probably be paying attention to it too.
This year’s VMA is August 27 and is being hosted by Katy Perry, who happens to be a pastor’s kid and a role model for a lot of young girls. Unfortunately, she also happens to embody a lot of what we don’t want our teenager girls to be. None the less, she is probably a “safe” host for MTV and likely won’t be nearly as bad as Miley Cyrus was in 2015. Miley was so bad that year that they ditched the host all together in 2016. Some of the big names that are going to be on stage preforming include Pink, Kendrick Lamar, Miley Cyrus, The Weeknd, and Ed Sheeren. If you don’t recognize one of those names, ask a teen if they do and see how quickly they can name a song from them. You see, even though I try to stay up to date on teen pop culture, I have no idea who some of the artists are. I’ve never heard of Logic, Khalid, or Post Malone until today when I looked at the VMA line up. They literally have billions of views on youtube and I had never even heard of them. But I asked a teen if they had heard of them and they said of course. They are surrounded by this stuff all the time, where I just pick up little bits here and there.
And that’s why it’s so important for parents to try to stay connected to what their kids are connected to. Not because you actually like hip hop but because your kid does and you love your kid. There are countless studies about how music affects the listener, but even beyond the psychology there is an important spiritual aspect that we need to pay attention to. One of the performers has a song called “Wild”. His official music video has over 300 million views on youtube which means there’s a good chance your kid has heard this song. I didn’t know that it was Khalid but I’ve heard it on the radio before. These are some of the lyrics from the third verse.
Ayy, ugh, ugh, I heard that p***y for the taking
I heard it got these other n****s goin' crazy
Yeah, I treat you like a lady, lady
F**k you 'til you're burned out, cremation (burned out)
Make it cream, yeah, Wu-Tang, Wu-Tang
Throw that a** back, bouquet, bouquet
My guess is this isn’t exactly what you want your kid to listen to, but have you ever had a conversation with them about it? One of the things you’ll hear me say a lot is that you need to have open and honest conversations with your kid about phones, social media, music, movies, and all other sorts of technology. They will hear stuff like this eventually, whether it’s now while they’re still young or when they move out of your house and get to figure it out on their own. It’s so important for you to help them walk through the process of figuring out how to handle and think about what they put into their system. Don’t just ban an artist because you heard me bash on them. Listen to their music with your kid and then ask them how it portrays women, or what feelings it brings up in them. Ask them why they like that song or that artist and help them find other artists that they can still relate to.
The tricky part is just because someone says they are a Christian doesn't make their music wholesome. Kendrick Lamar is a “christian” rapper, but if you pay attention to his lyrics and how he portrays himself you might not be keen on letting your kids listen to him. But have those conversations with your kids because even as adults we struggle with what we should an shouldn't subject ourselves to, it's devastating that we let them wrestle with those same challenges on their own.
Nathan Persell serves as our Youth Director. When he's not leading devotions and playing basketball with teenagers, he enjoys disc golf and bike riding. Learn more about Nathan here
Wear Sunscreen!
In one of the most famous graduation speeches we heard the words...
“Ladies and gentlemen of the class of ‘98: Wear sunscreen.
If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen would be it. The long-term benefits of sunscreen have been proved by scientists whereas the rest of my advice has no basis more reliable than my own meandering experience.”
I didn’t graduate in 98, but I've heard the speech, and the song, and read the newspaper article it was stolen from enough times that you would think I know that I should wear sunscreen. But Monday while floating down the Blackwater with the teens I did not wear enough sunscreen. The results? The worst sunburn I've had since I was a kid.
Wear sunscreen is one of the most stupidly simple pieces of advice you could ever give, and yet I still managed to forget it and it hurts. But it reminds me a lot of Jesus’s words. When asked what the greatest commandments were he said love God and love your neighbor. I may have shortened it a bit more but it’s also a stupidly simple message. If we want to be like Jesus we only need to love God and love people. And yet no matter how many times I’ve heard that, read it, or heard other people talk about it I still don’t love God the way I’m supposed to and I don’t love people like God does. The results? Lots of hurts.
If I was a little more philosophical I could probably point out all the ways that not loving others actually hurts me instead, but it’s not supposed to be about me to begin with. What I do know is that not loving others definitely hurts those I don’t love. And by not loving God with my everything I do myself harm. And while it doesn’t physically hurt God, it’s got to be incredibly painful for him to watch his beloved creation rebel against him when he knows we were meant for so much more.
So my advice is to wear sunscreen, because sun burns hurt, and love God and your neighbors, because sunscreen doesn’t work in hell.
Nathan Persell serves as our Youth Director. When he's not leading devotions and playing basketball with teenagers, he enjoys disc golf and bike riding. Learn more about Nathan here.
Teens and Technology
If your teenager has access to the internet in their bedroom, they are watching porn. You might be thinking to yourself that your kid would never do that. Or you might think I’m wrong, but statistics would say that I’m not.
The majority of homes in the United States have wireless internet (also known as wifi). We think it’s almost a necessity now. Roughly 80% of teenagers have a smart phone (so when you kid tells you that everyone else has a smart phone, it’s not much of an exaggeration) and if you’ve ever had to pay data overage fees you’d know that having wifi is cheaper than the fees. For that small percentage of teens who don’t have a smart phone or wifi, there is probably still a computer somewhere in the house with internet access. This means they have access to 4.2 million pornography websites that make up 12% of the entire internet.
I know none of those statistics say anything about students watching porn, but they should at least convince you that the possibility exists for them to have access to porn. But this infographic is why I can tell you that they are actually watching porn. This was based off a study done in 2008, when smart phones were just hitting the market and wifi wasn’t nearly as prevalent. And we also have to remember that this is just what people admitted to. So if you are a parent of a teenager, I sincerely hope that yours is one of the 3% of boys or 17% of girls who have never seen pornography, but the odds aren’t in your favor.
What is probably even scarier for parents is that there is also a good chance that their teenager has sexted by sending or receiving sexual images through text messaging or apps like snap chat. One article I saw recently put the number of teens who had sexted at around 54%. Most teens have no idea what the legal ramifications can be, and there are way too many stories of students ending up on the registered sex offenders list for life because of it.
There’s a book by Doug Fields and Jonathan McKee called “Should I Just Smash My Kid’s Phone?” that is an excellent resource for parents. It has sample phone contracts, discussion guides, and it’s designed to help you have conversations with teens about how to use technology in healthy ways. One of the things they share in the very beginning is a real conversation they had with a mom of three teens who didn’t allow her kids to use the internet. The oldest one, 19 years old, moved out so that he could use email, social media, youtube and all the other things he wasn’t allowed to do at home. He was figuring out the internet completely by himself, without guidelines or a framework for doing it responsibly or smartly. That is close to the worst thing possible. Banning all technology will not work. They will either sneak around you (bringing on feelings of hate, resentment, guilt, and so on) or they will get to discover everything on their own when they move out (which will mean binging on everything good and bad).
I highly encourage you to find some resources about how to set up healthy boundaries and have good conversations about using technology. However in the mean time, here are a few tips.
- Pick which hills you are willing to die on. Not every battle is worth the fallout, heart ache, and emotional toll.
- Have conversations! Don’t talk down to them. Don’t just give orders. Explain why you are doing what you’re doing. Let them ask questions. LISTEN TO WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY.
- Set up realistic boundaries. Discuss why you have those boundaries, and adjust boundaries based on maturity level. Most cell phone service providers have a version of smart limits that can shut off data usage during certain times of the day, allow only certain numbers to access the phone at certain times, and a number of other things that can be very useful to parents. Don’t be afraid to ask questions.
- Sit in the front seat. Just like driving a car, realize that cell phones and technology are privileges, not inherent rights. When they learn to drive, you are in the front seat with them, showing them how to drive safely. Let them know from the beginning that you will be with them through their cell phone usage. 70% of teens already try hiding their online activities from their parents.
- Don’t be the helicopter parent, but stay connected to your kids world. You pay for the phone and the service fees, it’s not unreasonable for you to have the passwords to their phone or social media accounts. Be their friend/follower/whatever it’s called on whatever apps they are using.
Nathan Persell serves as our Youth Director. When he's not leading devotions and playing basketball with teenagers, he enjoys disc golf and bike riding. Learn more about Nathan here.
Blame it on the Sauce!
Everything is spaghetti’s fault. Well more specifically, it’s spaghetti sauce’s fault. You see up until the 1970’s there were very few spaghetti sauces. There was basically Prego and Ragu, each company with only one kind of spaghetti sauce, now Prego has over 40 different types of spaghetti sauce. Are you seeing the problem yet?
Probably not. But spaghetti sauce changed the world thanks to a guy named Howard Moskowitz. Howard worked for several food companies and he did product research. Companies would hire him to do taste testing with people and to discover what the perfect formula was. Most of his data was so jumbled up that he didn’t know what to do with it, and it was pretty industry standard that you didn’t get clear data from these types of things. Well Howard eventually came to the conclusion that there was no perfect sauce, but there were perfect sauces. By now you probably think I’m crazy, but people thought Howard was crazy too.
There is no one perfect sauce for everyone. But there are groups of people who want different things in their sauces, most of them falling into one of three categories: plain, spicy, extra chunky. This trend in the food industry has spread through almost every other industry in America. Not only do we have dozens of types of pickles, we have dozens of variations of the same computer. If I want to buy a new Mac, I have to decide between a Mac mini, a Mac pro, an iMac, macbook pro, MacBook air, just a Macbook, or the iMac pro. 7 different types of computer just from one company, not to include all the variations 21.5” screen or 27”, three different types of display, how much memory you want, how much storage, mouse or track pad or maybe both? That’s 108 different variations of just the iMac. We no longer live in a one size fits all culture.
We have fallen into a consumer driven mentality, and thanks to the spaghetti we all think we will be able to find the perfect (fill in the blank), and we carry that over to church. We think that there is a perfect church out there or we come up with a list of things we “need” in a church in order to worship God. The church, or God depending on how you look at it, have become things that we consume. People even throw around the phrase “I just wasn’t being fed there”. The big irony for me is that we are the ones who are supposed to be consumed, and it’s all about worshiping God. We’ve gotten a little backwards thanks to spaghetti.
Part of Howard’s research also figured out that people don’t really know what they want, most of the time they haven’t even experienced what they would like most. A third of Americans had no clue they loved extra chunky spaghetti sauce, so when Prego launched an extra chunky variety it changed the industry forever, making $600 million in just 10 years. They just invited people to come experience their sauce and people loved it even though they never knew they needed it. There are millions of Americans who don’t know Jesus, they don’t know they need Jesus. We just need to bring them to the table and let them experience him, or as the Bible says:
“Taste and see that the Lord is good; blessed is the one who takes refuge in him.”
Nathan Persell serves as our Youth Director. When he's not leading devotions and playing basketball with teenagers, he enjoys disc golf and bike riding. Learn more about Nathan here.